1. The Basics of Probability

    What is Probability?

    Probability is the mathematical representation of the likelihood of an event under a given set of circumstances (conditions) in a given period of time. We will say, for example, that the probability of winning the jackpot in the lottery from buying one ticket this week is some …

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  2. Week 5 Recap

    In week 5, we began by continuing our probability lecture from last week, and then, as an exercise, tried to prove the correct answer to the Monty Hall problem using Bayes Rule.

    Monty Redux

    Here's that solution again. Remember our formula for Bayes Rule:

    $$P(B|A) = \frac{P(A …
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