1. # The Basics of Probability

## What is Probability?

Probability is the mathematical representation of the likelihood of an event under a given set of circumstances (conditions) in a given period of time. We will say, for example, that the probability of winning the jackpot in the lottery from buying one ticket this week is some …

2. # Abel and Baker Redux: Probability and Description

Right at the beginning of the F&L readings for this week, you saw a well-known probability puzzler/"paradox." I'm going to risk angering the copyright gods and quote it in full here:

Assume that boys and girls are born with equal frequency. Mr. Able says, “I have two children …

3. # Week 5 Recap

In week 5, we began by continuing our probability lecture from last week, and then, as an exercise, tried to prove the correct answer to the Monty Hall problem using Bayes Rule.

## Monty Redux

Here's that solution again. Remember our formula for Bayes Rule:

P(B|A) = \frac{P(A …